Archive for March, 2017

NEW POLL SHOWS THAT IF US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WERE HELD AGAIN, INCREASED TURNOUT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A CLINTON VICTORY

Crux Research poll shows 92% of Trump voters and 91% of Clinton voters would not change their vote

ROCHESTER, NY – MARCH 12, 2017 – Polling results released today by Crux Research show that if there were a “do over” and the election were held again tomorrow, Hillary Clinton would likely win the Presidency.  But, this would not happen as a result of voters changing their vote – rather voters who didn’t turn out in the fall would provide an edge to Clinton.

In 2016, the popular vote was 48.0% for Hillary Clinton and 45.9% for Donald Trump (a gap of 2.1)[1].  This new poll shows that if the election were held again among these two candidates, the popular vote would be estimated to be 52.9% Clinton and 47.1% Trump (a gap of 5.8).

Further, few Clinton or Trump supporters would change their voting behaviors:

  • 92% of those who voted for Trump in November would vote for him again tomorrow.
  • 91% of those who voted for Clinton in November would vote for her again tomorrow.

A new election would bring out additional voters.  57% of non-voters in 2016 would intend to vote. Their votes would split approximately 60% for Clinton and 40% for Trump.  So, increased turnout would likely provide a decisive edge to Clinton.

A closer look at swing states (the five states where the winner won by 2 percentage points or less[2]), shows that Clinton  would win these states by a gap of 9.3, likely enough to change the election result.

WHO WOULD WIN TOMORROW?
Suppose there was a “do over” and the US presidential election were held again tomorrow. 
Whom would you vote for?
Actual 2016 Election Result March 2017 Crux Research Poll*
Donald Trump 45.9% 47.1%
Hillary Clinton 48.0% 52.9%
Others 6.0%
*2017 Crux Research poll is among those who say they would vote if the election were held again tomorrow.
VOTE SWITCHING BEHAVIOR
Suppose there was a “do over” and the US presidential election were held again tomorrow. 
Whom would you vote for?
Voted for Trump in 2016 Voted for Clinton in 2016
Donald Trump 92% 1%
Hillary Clinton 1% 91%
Others 4% 7%
Wouldn’t vote 2% 1%
SWING STATES RESULTS
Suppose there was a “do over” and the US presidential election were held again tomorrow. 
Whom would you vote for?
Actual 2016 Election Result in Swing States Swing States March 2017 Crux Research Poll*
Donald Trump 48.0% 47.1%
Hillary Clinton 47.2% 52.9%
Others 4.8%
*2017 Crux Research poll is among those who say they would vote if the election were held again tomorrow.
** Swing states are five states where the election was decided by 2 percentage points or less (PA, MI, WI, FL, and NH).

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Methodology

This poll was conducted online between March 6 and March 10, 2017. The sample size was 1,010 US adults (aged 18 and over). Quota sampling and weighting were employed to ensure that respondent proportions for age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and region matched their actual proportions in the population.  The poll was also balanced to reflect the actual proportion of voters who voted for each candidate in the 2016 election.

This poll did not have a sponsor and was conducted and funded by Crux Research, an independent market research firm that is not in any way associated with political parties, candidates, or the media.

All surveys and polls are subject to many sources of error.  The term “margin of error” is misleading for online polls, which are not based on a probability sample which is a requirement for margin of error calculations.  If this study did use probability sampling, the margin of error would be +/-3%.

About Crux Research Inc.

Crux Research partners with clients to develop winning products and services, build powerful brands, create engaging marketing strategies, enhance customer satisfaction and loyalty, improve products and services, and get the most out of their advertising.

Using quantitative and qualitative methods, Crux connects organizations with their customers in a wide range of industries, including health care, education, consumer goods, financial services, media and advertising, automotive, technology, retail, business-to-business, and non-profits.

Crux connects decision makers with customers, uses data to inspire new thinking, and assures clients they are being served by experienced, senior level researchers who set the standard for customer service from a survey research and polling consultant.

To learn more about Crux Research, visit www.cruxresearch.com.

[1] http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

[2] PA, MI, WI, FL, and NH were decided by 2 percentage points or less.