Archive for the 'New Studies' Category

What are the best COVID-19 polls?

Published May 3, 2020 Coronavirus , New Studies Leave a Comment
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The COVID-19 crisis is affecting all types of organizations. Many, including some of our clients, are commissioning private polls to help predict the specific impact of the pandemic on their business. Fortunately, there are a number of well-regarded research and polling organizations conducting polls that are publicly released. Unfortunately, there are also disreputable polls out there and can be challenging to sort out the good from the bad.

We’ve been closely watching the COVID-19 polls and have found some that stand out from the rest. We felt it would be a good idea to list them here to save you some time as you look for polling information.

  • First, although it is not a poll, a useful site to look at is the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. This site contains the results of a model projecting numbers of deaths from COVID-19, beds needed versus hospital capacity, etc. This is one of the most credible models out there, and the one that seems to be cited the most in the media and by the federal government.
  • Johns Hopkins University maintains a coronavirus tracking center which is the definitive place to go to track cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from COVID-19. 

Below is a list of opinion polls we’ve found most interesting. There are a lot of polls out there. The ones listed below are from trusted organizations and would be a good place to start your search. There are many polls available that concentrate on things like the public’s opinion of the government’s handling of the crisis. The polls below go a bit deeper and are far more interesting in our view. There are likely other good polls out there, but these are the best ones we have found thus far.

  • The Harris Poll COVID-19 tracker.  This is perhaps the most comprehensive COVID-19 polling we have discovered, and it tracks back to early March. If you have time for just one polling site this is probably the one to check out.
  • Pew. Pew is a widely-respected organization that has conducted many polls on COVID-19 topics.
  • The COVID Impact Survey. This is an independent, non-governmental survey being conducted by NORC along with some respected foundations. 
  • Dynata. Dynata has a tracking poll going on COVID-19 that is interesting because it spans multiple countries. Dynata is also doing a “symptom map” based on their polling worldwide. This is interesting as it shows how symptoms are trending around the world, in the US by state, and even in NYC by neighborhood. However, we feel that a Google Trends search would provide better data that survey research on symptoms. 
  • IPSOS.  IPSOS is also conducting worldwide polls. 
  • Simpson Scarborough. This poll is specific to higher education and the implications of COVID-19 on college students. If you work in higher education or have a college-aged child, you are likely to find this one interesting.
  • University of Massachusetts Amherst. This one is different and interesting. It shows the results of an ongoing survey of infectious disease experts, containing their predictions for the impacts of the disease.  It is updated weekly.  FiveThirtyEight is summarizing this work and it is probably easiest to read their summaries than to go to the original source. I must say, though, I have been watching this poll carefully, and the experts haven’t been all that accurate in their predictions, missing on the high side consistently.

There are undoubtedly many more good polls out there. Those mentioned above are from non-partisan, trusted organizations.

Among college students, Bernie Sanders is the overwhelming choice for the Democratic nomination

Published October 10, 2019 Election polling , Millennials , New Studies , Uncategorized Leave a Comment
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Crux Research poll of college students shows Sanders at 23%, Biden at 16%, and all other candidates under 10%

ROCHESTER, NY – October 10, 2019 – Polling results released today by Crux Research show that if it was up to college students, Bernie Sanders would win the Democratic nomination the US Presidency. Sanders is the favored candidate for the nomination among 23% of college students compared to 16% for Joe Biden. Elizabeth Warren is favored by 8% of college students followed by 7% support for Andrew Yang.

  • Bernie Sanders: 23%
  • Joe Biden: 16%
  • Elizabeth Warren: 8%
  • Andrew Yang: 7%
  • Kamala Harris: 6%
  • Beto O’Rourke: 5%
  • Pete Buttigieg: 4%
  • Tom Steyer: 3%
  • Cory Booker: 3%
  • Michael Bennet: 2%
  • Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
  • Amy Klobuchar: 2%
  • Julian Castro: 1%
  • None of these: 5%
  • Unsure: 10%
  • I won’t vote: 4%

The poll also presented five head-to-head match-ups. Each match-up suggests that the Democratic candidate currently has a strong edge over President Trump, with Sanders having the largest edge.

  • Sanders versus Trump: 61% Sanders; 17% Trump; 12% Someone Else; 7% Not Sure; 3% would not vote
  • Warren versus Trump: 53% Warren; 18% Trump; 15% Someone Else; 9% Not Sure; 5% would not vote
  • Biden versus Trump: 51% Biden; 18% Trump; 19% Someone Else; 8% Not Sure; 4% would not vote
  • Harris versus Trump: 48% Harris; 18% Trump; 20% Someone Else; 10% Not Sure; 4% would not vote
  • Buttigieg versus Trump: 44% Buttigieg; 18% Trump; 22% Someone Else; 11% Not Sure; 5% would not vote

The 2020 election could very well be determined on the voter turnout among young people, which has traditionally been much lower than among older age groups.

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Methodology
This poll was conducted online between October 1 and October 8, 2019. The sample size was 555 US college students (aged 18 to 29). Quota sampling and weighting were employed to ensure that respondent proportions for age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and region matched their actual proportions in the US college student population.

This poll did not have a sponsor and was conducted and funded by Crux Research, an independent market research firm that is not in any way associated with political parties, candidates, or the media.

All surveys and polls are subject to many sources of error. The term “margin of error” is misleading for online polls, which are not based on a probability sample which is a requirement for margin of error calculations. If this study did use probability sampling, the margin of error would be +/-4%.

About Crux Research Inc.
Crux Research partners with clients to develop winning products and services, build powerful brands, create engaging marketing strategies, enhance customer satisfaction and loyalty, improve products and services, and get the most out of their advertising.

Using quantitative and qualitative methods, Crux connects organizations with their customers in a wide range of industries, including health care, education, consumer goods, financial services, media and advertising, automotive, technology, retail, business-to-business, and non-profits.
Crux connects decision makers with customers, uses data to inspire new thinking, and assures clients they are being served by experienced, senior level researchers who set the standard for customer service from a survey research and polling consultant.

To learn more about Crux Research, visit http://www.cruxresearch.com.

Sexual harassment/abuse among college students – new survey results released

Published August 2, 2018 Education , Millennials , New Studies , Sexual Harassment Leave a Comment
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Sexual harassment and abuse on college campuses has garnered increased attention in the media and by political leaders. Surprisingly, there is little research documenting what is actually happening among college students – what the levels of abuse and harassment are, who is being victimized, and how students feel their college administrators are dealing with these issues.

In the spring of 2018 Crux Research surveyed 717 current college students to learn more about the current state of these issues. An issue like sexual harassment can be challenging to get right from a polling standpoint because it can be difficult to define. As a general term, it can be too broad to interpret as different experiences may be construed by one person as harassment and as another as not being harassment. The best way to address this is to be specific in our questioning. To be sure respondents understood our objectives, we developed a list of statements under three harassment categories shown below:

Verbal/Non-Physical harassment

  • Being called gay or lesbian in a negative way
  • Being shown sexy or sexual pictures you didn’t want to see
  • Being verbally intimidated in a sexual way
  • Having someone make unwelcome sexual comments, jokes, or gestures to or about you
  • Having someone flash or expose themselves to you

Online harassment

  • Being called gay or lesbian in a negative way online
  • Having someone spread unwelcome sexual rumors about you online
  • Having someone post unwelcome sexual comments, jokes, or pictures about or of you online
  • Being sent unwelcome sexual comments, jokes, or pictures electronically

Physical harassment

  • Being physically intimidated in a sexual way
  • Being touched in an unwelcome sexual way
  • Being forced to do something sexual you didn’t want to do

For each, we asked the college student if he/she had been a victim of the specific type of harassment since they had been a college student. We found that 54% of college students have been a victim of some form of verbal/non-physical harassment, 45% have been a victim of some sort of online harassment, and 32% have been a victim of some sort of physical harassment.

Importantly, this study finds that while victimization is usually thought of as an issue for college women, college men are also common victims of sexual harassment:

  • 55% of college females have been the victims of verbal harassment, compared to 52% of college males.
  • 42% of college females have been the victims of online harassment, compared to 47% of college males.
  • 32% of college females have been the victims of physical harassment, compared to 32% of college males.

There are some large differences in college males and females, depending on the specific form of harassment:

College females are more likely than college males to report that…

  • Someone has made unwelcome sexual comments, jokes, or gestures to or about them (41% of females; 17% of males).
  • They have been verbally intimidated in a sexual way (27% of females; 17% of males).
  • They have been sent unwelcome sexual comments, jokes, or pictures electronically (30% of females; 17% of males).

College males are more likely than college females to report that…

  • Being called gay or lesbian in a negative way (20% of males; 14% of females).
  • Being called gay or lesbian in a negative way online (20% of males; 8% of females).

Perhaps most surprising is that for the most serious abuse item presented (“being forced to do something sexual that you didn’t want to do”) there was no statistical difference between college males and college females. Overall, 13% of college students indicated this has happened to them since they have been at college – about 1 in 8 college students. Again, the most serious types of sexual harassment and abuse happening on campuses is not solely a female issue. College men are reporting being sexual abused in a physical way as well.

Although we have shown that victimization is not solely an issue for college females, it is clear from our study that the perpetrators of sexual harassment/abuse are predominantly male. Overall, victims report that 72% of the time their harasser was male, 16% of the time the harasser was female, and 12% of the time it was both.

Most commonly, victims report that their harasser was a fellow college student (53%) or a friend (26%). 12% report that their harasser was a romantic partner. It is rare that students will report that their instructors/professors (4% of cases) or another adult at college (3%) are the harassers. Sexual harassment on college campuses appears to be mostly peer-to-peer.

Unique to this study, we also asked college students if they had done anything since they had been a student that could be correctly interpreted as being sexual harassment. Seventeen percent (17%) of students said they had – including 28% of all college males. To repeat: more than one in four (28%) of college males admit that they have done something to sexually harass another student since they have been in college.

Perhaps most troubling is how infrequently instances of abuse are reported. This study indicates that just 37% of harassment gets reported. Females (reporting 24% of instances) are less likely than males (54%) to make a report. For every report made by a college female, there are three incidents that are not reported.  And, our study also found that instances where the harasser was a fellow student are the ones that are least likely to be reported.

This issue has been brought more front and center at colleges in the past few years. College culture is moving towards supporting the victim/accuser. Compared to a year ago, about half (52%) of students are more likely to believe someone that reports being sexually harassed and 15% are less likely to believe someone who reports harassment. About two-thirds (65%) of students think the greater focus on these issues will result in a long-term change in attitudes about sexual harassment at college. Three-quarters (74%) feel that unreported sexual harassment is a bigger issue than false reporting of sexual harassment.

College students are largely satisfied with how their administration has addressed sexual misconduct and harassment. Overall, just 6% felt that their administration is not taking this issue seriously. Seventy percent (70%) feel that their college provides enough protection against sexual harassment and abuse.

In sum, sexual harassment and abuse occurs at a troubling level at colleges – and both college females and males are victims. Students are rallying behind the accusers, yet far too few victims are reporting harassment incidences, especially when they happen student-to-student. It appears that students have confidence in their administrators to handle these issues and protect them.

Millennial College Students Are Torn Between Open Speech and Protecting the Vulnerable

Published March 1, 2018 Education , Generations , Millennials , New Studies Leave a Comment
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We recently completed a poll of 1,000 college students on the topic of free speech on campus. Previous postings (here and here) have shown that students are reticent to support controversial speakers on campus and do not support any speakers who might have viewpoints that some students find to be uncomfortable.

In this final post on our poll results, we take a look at some contradictions in our data that demonstrate that today’s college students are torn between a desire to favor a campus that promotes free and open debate and an ethos that makes them want to protect the vulnerable from feeling uncomfortable.

There has been a long-held belief by conservatives that colleges are bastions of liberal thinking and perhaps indoctrination. Our poll results lend support to this viewpoint, as 52% of college students feel their professors tend to be more liberal in their thinking than the nation as a whole while just 23% feel their professors are more conservative:

Compared to the views of the nation as a whole, would you say that your current professors/instructors tend to be:
More conservative in their thinking 23%
About the same as the nation as a whole 25%
More liberal in their thinking 52%

Students tend to express a desire for their professors to be given a wide latitude to express their views and are largely not in support of administrators censoring how professors express their views to students.

Which statement below comes closest to your opinion?
College administrators should closely monitor what professors/instructors teach to make sure all students are comfortable 33%
College professors/instructors should be given a wide degree of freedom to express their views to students 67%

The result below shows that students report that colleges should encourage students to have an open mind to ideas that they may find uncomfortable. At first glance, college students seem to favor an atmosphere of openness on campus.

Which statement below comes closest to your opinion?
Colleges should attempt to shield students from ideas and opinions they may find unwelcome and offensive 25%
Colleges should encourage students to be exposed to ideas and opinions they may find unwelcome and offensive 75%

Millennial college students also recognize that free and open speech is central to university life. For example:

  • Two-thirds (66%) agree that the intellectual vitality of a university depends on open and free expression of ideas.
  • 63% agree that free speech, including controversial speech, is central to college teaching and learning.
  • 57% agree that student-run newspapers have a first amendment right to publish controversial stories without running afoul of college administrators.

That said, this poll also shows that Millennials also hold some views that run counter to the free speech ethos they express:

  • 57% agree that students should be encouraged to report instances of professor bias to administrators.
  • 48% feel that students should be provided warnings in advance to alert them to potentially troublesome readings.
  • 45% feel that colleges should provide intellectual safe spaces, where students can retreat from ideas and perspectives that are at odds with their own.

And, as we discussed in our previous postings, students shy away from permitting almost any type of speaker on campus that could potentially communicate anything that might cause a subgroup of students discomfort.

So, there are some contradictions in our findings that needs explaining. We feel that there is likely some nuance on Millennial opinion. The Millennial college student seems torn between realizing that exposure to ideas counter to their own is essential to their education and a strong ethos of protecting the vulnerable.

Which statement below comes closest to your opinion?
It is more important that colleges stick up for the vulnerable 50%
It is more important that colleges stand up for a spirit of inquiry 50%

This nuance is difficult for Boomer and Xers (who make up most college administrators and professors) to grasp. Older generations grew up not only at a time when free and open speech was held to a higher standard but also at a time where the college/university campus was the nexus of student opinion and influence. Today’s Millennial student has experienced more cultural diversity on campus and has established digital meeting spaces are their nexus for opinion and community. Millennials are exposed to diverse and controversial opinions constantly, to the point where their desire to protect the campus from controversy and discomfort may be a defense mechanism. It is an environment they can control.

What this all means for the university has yet to be seen. But, campus life is changing, and it will be key that the pendulum that is now swinging towards safety and comfort doesn’t swing so far as to limit student exposure to valuable viewpoints and a well-rounded worldview.

Students Are More Likely to Oppose Campus Speakers Than to Support Them

Published February 15, 2018 Education , Millennials , New Studies Leave a Comment
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We recently posted a result from an in-depth poll we conducted among 1,000 college students last fall. In this poll we asked students about specific speakers they may or may not support coming to their campus. Among our conclusions was that students largely aren’t supportive of very many speakers – particularly individuals who might be considered to be controversial or present ideas some might find uncomfortable.

In this same poll, we asked students about types of speakers that might come to a college campus. We included speaker types we felt most observers would feel are appropriate as well as speaker types that we felt even the most passionate free speech advocates might question. Our goal was to see where “the line” might be for today’s college students. The answer is the line is very high – students largely don’t want campus speakers at all.

The table below shows the percentage of US college students who would support each type of speaker coming to their campus to speak:

Support
A leader from the Black Lives Matter movement 50%
An advocate for the legalization of marijuana 46%
An elected official with views that are vastly different than yours 22%
A publisher of pornographic videos 21%
An activist who has a different view on abortion than you do 19%
A speaker who strongly opposes the Black Lives matter movement 19%
A politician who is against gay marriage 17%
A speaker who believes that there are racial differences in intelligence 17%
A tobacco company executive 14%
A speaker who is known to have sexually harassed a colleague in the past 11%
Muslim who advocates hatred towards the United States 10%
A speaker who believes that the Holocaust did not happen 10%
A white supremacist 10%

Some interesting conclusions can be made by looking at whom students are willing to support coming to their campus to speak:

  • Even the most highly supported type of speaker (A leader from the Black Lives Matter movement) is only supported by half (50%) of students. Support for any type of campus speaker is tepid.
  • Two types of speakers stood out as having the most support: Leaders from the Black Lives Matter movement and advocates for the legalization of marijuana.
  • It is perhaps troubling that only about 1 in 5 students (22%) support an elected official with views different from their own.
  • Racially insensitive speakers (white supremacists and Holocaust deniers) are the least supported types of speakers.

We can also look at the same list, but this time sorted by the percentage of students who oppose this type of speaker coming to their campus to speak:

Oppose
A white supremacist 68%
A speaker who believes that the Holocaust did not happen 68%
A speaker who is known to have sexually harassed a colleague in the past 67%
Muslim who advocates hatred towards the United States 66%
A speaker who believes that there are racial differences in intelligence 51%
A politician who is against gay marriage 50%
A tobacco company executive 49%
A speaker who strongly opposes the Black Lives matter movement 46%
A publisher of pornographic videos 39%
An activist who has a different view on abortion than you do 27%
An elected official with views that are vastly different than yours 25%
An advocate for the legalization of marijuana 16%
A leader from the Black Lives Matter movement 16%

Here we see that:

  • In general, students are more passionate in their opposition to speaker types than in their support.
  • Speakers with racially insensitive views and those known to have sexually harassed someone are the most opposed types of speakers. Speakers who have sexually harassed are opposed just as much as white supremacists.
  • About half of students oppose politicians who are against gay marriage and tobacco company executives. This is about the same level of opposition as to a speaker who believes there are racial differences in intelligence.
  • About 1 in 4 students would oppose an elected official that has different views than the student.

Because there have been instances of speakers being shouted down and even physically confronted by college students, we posed a question that asked students what they felt were acceptable ways to protest against a campus speaker.

Which of the following actions would you take if you were strongly opposed to a speaker your college had invited to speak on campus?
Disagree with the speaker during a question-and-answer period 25%
Organize a boycott of the speech 22%
Stage a protest outside of the building where the speech is taking place 21%
Host a concurrent speech from a speaker with an opposing view 16%
Stage a sit-in at an administrative building 12%
Physically confront the speaker 8%
Disrupt the speech while it is going on 7%

For the most part, students don’t support any actions if they strongly oppose a campus speaker. While it is encouraging to see that they do not support disrupting the speech or physically confronting a speaker, it is perhaps just as disheartening to see that only 1 in 4 would be willing to disagree with the speaker during a Q&A period. So, not only do students not want most types of speakers, they aren’t willing to step up and do something if a speaker they find controversial does come to campus.

Just as we found when we looked at specific speakers, students seem to be shying away from not just controversial speakers, but also those that might make some portion of the student body uncomfortable. Based on these results, we predict that there will be fewer speakers invited to college campuses in the future and that attendance at these events will decline.

Are Teenagers Widgets?

Published July 3, 2017 Education , Generations , Millennials , New Studies Leave a Comment
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Many educational strategy proposals to better engage students assume that all students are similar in how they are motivated to do their best. Yet, students are likely to respond to educational challenges put before them very differently. Students may be engaged in different ways and perhaps not fit into a “one best model” of schooling. Ask any parent that has more than one child, and he/she is likely to tell you just how different their kids are.

Crux Research recently completed a project for the Thomas B. Fordham Institute entitled What Teens Want From Their Schools: A National Survey of High School Student Engagement. This project was based on more than 2,000 interviews and six focus groups of US High School Students. A central feature of the project was a segmentation model that highlighted that although there are many aspects of student engagement that students hold in common, students tend to be strongly associated with one of six primary engagement tendencies. In short, it is unlikely that one model of schooling can be optimal for all children.

A full report of this project is available here.

Are our public places too noisy? Americans think so!

Published May 4, 2017 Millennials , New Studies Leave a Comment
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Crux Research recently conducted a poll for the American Speech-Language-Hearing Association. It found that many Americans are concerned about their exposure to noise when taking part in out-of-home leisure activities. Many also say that noise lessens their enjoyment of many activities and causes them to decide not to take part in them at times.

Perhaps most surprising is that Millennials were just about as likely as Boomers to be concerned about noise when taking part in leisure activities.

For more information on this poll, ASHA’s press release is here.

And, a detailed summary of the poll can be found here.

Americans value money and brains over looks

Published April 3, 2017 Generations , Marketing , Millennials , New Studies , Youth Marketing Leave a Comment
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We recently posed a question on a national poll which required Americans to make an interesting choice:

If you could have one of the following, which would you choose?

  • I would have more money than I have today
  • I would be smarter than I am today
  • I would be better looking than I am today

This is a provocative cocktail party question. How would you answer it? How might your answer change depending on your life stage – would you answer it differently 15 years ago or 15 years into the future?

Across all ages (18+), 61% of Americans choose more money. It would be interesting to pose this question internationally to learn if this finding reflects American culture and capitalism or if this result reflects something universal to all people. Overall, 26% of US adults choose being smarter and 12% choose being better looking. So, it can be said that Americans value money and brains over looks.

We should note that there wasn’t a gender difference in the results. Males and females were just as likely to say all three options. There were a couple of interesting racial differences. Hispanics were least likely to say they would like more money and most likely to say they would like to be smarter. Blacks were as likely as others to say “money” but were more likely than others to say “better looking” and less likely to say “smarter.”

But, by far the largest and most interesting differences in this question related to the generation of the respondent. We’ve seen the Millennial generation maligned quite a bit recently, hearing that they are entitled and a bit lazy. We’ve never quite believed that, as the perception that a youth generation is disrespectful and lazy has been true since before the term “generation” was coined.

For instance, this is a quote from Socrates, and is about 2,400 years old:

“Children today are tyrants.  They contradict their parents, gobble their food, and tyrannize their teachers.”

Mark Twain, late in his life, had this to say about children:

“When a child turns 12 you should put him in a barrel, nail the lid down, and feed him through a knot hole… When he turns 16, plug the hole.”                                              

One of the more cynical (and unintentionally humorous) quotations about children came from Clarence Darrow, almost a century ago:

“The first half of our lives is ruined by our parents and the second half by our children.”

But, back to our poll question.  There are currently five living generations:

First birth year

 Final birth year Current youngest member

Current oldest member

Silent

1925

 1942 75

92
Boom

1943

 1960 57

74
Gen X

1961

 1981 36

56
Milllennials

1982

 2004 13

35
Homelanders 2005 2017 0

12

Which one do you think would be the most apt to choose “more money” in our question? We’d presume that most people would predict it would be Millennials. But, in reality, it is Boomers who are most likely to say money:

More Money Smarter Better Looking
Silent

54%

 37%

9%
Boom

71%

 19%

11%
Gen X

65%

 26%

10%

Milllennials

 52% 31%

17%

There are fascinating generational differences in this table.  Howe and Strauss have developed an excellent generational theory, and one aspect of it is that a generational cycle recurs through four archetypes. So, typically, a current youth generations will have a similar type and outlook as the oldest living generation. This theory is supported by the table above. It is the oldest (Silent) and youngest (Millennials) generations that are least concerned with money and relatively most concerned with being smarter.

Boomers come across as the most money-obsessed generation, which is interesting as they are in a life stage where personal net worth tends to peak. 71% of Boomers would prefer more money to being smarter or better looking.  Of course, with all generational conclusions, it could be more of a life stage issue at work – Boomers are currently between 57 and 74 years old and perhaps pre- and early-retirement are particularly money-centric life stages. But, we suspect that if we had conducted this poll over time Boomers would have been highly concerned with money compared to other generations throughout all life stages.

Finally, these results underscore a point we like to make with clients. It is challenging to fully understand a generation unless we widen the sampling frame and interview other generations as well. Had this question just been asked of Millennials, we may have concluded that money was an overriding concern for them. It is only when comparing them to other generations that we see that they value intelligence and smarts more than others.

Visit the Crux Research Website www.cruxresearch.com

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