Archive Page 2

Students Are More Likely to Oppose Campus Speakers Than to Support Them

We recently posted a result from an in-depth poll we conducted among 1,000 college students last fall. In this poll we asked students about specific speakers they may or may not support coming to their campus. Among our conclusions was that students largely aren’t supportive of very many speakers – particularly individuals who might be considered to be controversial or present ideas some might find uncomfortable.

In this same poll, we asked students about types of speakers that might come to a college campus. We included speaker types we felt most observers would feel are appropriate as well as speaker types that we felt even the most passionate free speech advocates might question. Our goal was to see where “the line” might be for today’s college students. The answer is the line is very high – students largely don’t want campus speakers at all.

The table below shows the percentage of US college students who would support each type of speaker coming to their campus to speak:

Support
A leader from the Black Lives Matter movement 50%
An advocate for the legalization of marijuana 46%
An elected official with views that are vastly different than yours 22%
A publisher of pornographic videos 21%
An activist who has a different view on abortion than you do 19%
A speaker who strongly opposes the Black Lives matter movement 19%
A politician who is against gay marriage 17%
A speaker who believes that there are racial differences in intelligence 17%
A tobacco company executive 14%
A speaker who is known to have sexually harassed a colleague in the past 11%
Muslim who advocates hatred towards the United States 10%
A speaker who believes that the Holocaust did not happen 10%
A white supremacist 10%

Some interesting conclusions can be made by looking at whom students are willing to support coming to their campus to speak:

  • Even the most highly supported type of speaker (A leader from the Black Lives Matter movement) is only supported by half (50%) of students. Support for any type of campus speaker is tepid.
  • Two types of speakers stood out as having the most support: Leaders from the Black Lives Matter movement and advocates for the legalization of marijuana.
  • It is perhaps troubling that only about 1 in 5 students (22%) support an elected official with views different from their own.
  • Racially insensitive speakers (white supremacists and Holocaust deniers) are the least supported types of speakers.

We can also look at the same list, but this time sorted by the percentage of students who oppose this type of speaker coming to their campus to speak:

Oppose
A white supremacist 68%
A speaker who believes that the Holocaust did not happen 68%
A speaker who is known to have sexually harassed a colleague in the past 67%
Muslim who advocates hatred towards the United States 66%
A speaker who believes that there are racial differences in intelligence 51%
A politician who is against gay marriage 50%
A tobacco company executive 49%
A speaker who strongly opposes the Black Lives matter movement 46%
A publisher of pornographic videos 39%
An activist who has a different view on abortion than you do 27%
An elected official with views that are vastly different than yours 25%
An advocate for the legalization of marijuana 16%
A leader from the Black Lives Matter movement 16%

Here we see that:

  • In general, students are more passionate in their opposition to speaker types than in their support.
  • Speakers with racially insensitive views and those known to have sexually harassed someone are the most opposed types of speakers. Speakers who have sexually harassed are opposed just as much as white supremacists.
  • About half of students oppose politicians who are against gay marriage and tobacco company executives. This is about the same level of opposition as to a speaker who believes there are racial differences in intelligence.
  • About 1 in 4 students would oppose an elected official that has different views than the student.

Because there have been instances of speakers being shouted down and even physically confronted by college students, we posed a question that asked students what they felt were acceptable ways to protest against a campus speaker.

Which of the following actions would you take if you were strongly opposed to a speaker your college had invited to speak on campus?
Disagree with the speaker during a question-and-answer period 25%
Organize a boycott of the speech 22%
Stage a protest outside of the building where the speech is taking place 21%
Host a concurrent speech from a speaker with an opposing view 16%
Stage a sit-in at an administrative building 12%
Physically confront the speaker 8%
Disrupt the speech while it is going on 7%

For the most part, students don’t support any actions if they strongly oppose a campus speaker. While it is encouraging to see that they do not support disrupting the speech or physically confronting a speaker, it is perhaps just as disheartening to see that only 1 in 4 would be willing to disagree with the speaker during a Q&A period. So, not only do students not want most types of speakers, they aren’t willing to step up and do something if a speaker they find controversial does come to campus.

Just as we found when we looked at specific speakers, students seem to be shying away from not just controversial speakers, but also those that might make some portion of the student body uncomfortable. Based on these results, we predict that there will be fewer speakers invited to college campuses in the future and that attendance at these events will decline.

Who is an appropriate campus speaker? Almost nobody!

US colleges face many free speech challenges. Traditionally, colleges have been places where diverse viewpoints are encouraged even if ideas expressed are seen as controversial. But recently, there have been many instances of invited speakers to college campuses sparking protest, being shouted down, and even being physically confronted by students on campuses. It seems that a generational shift is taking place whereby Millennial students are highly concerned about inclusiveness and protecting vulnerable groups from potentially harmful speech. Prior generations of college students (Xers and especially Boomers) seemed to hold the concept of free speech in higher regard and seemed willing to permit more controversial speech on campus.

This is a fascinating issue and we covered it in depth in a poll of 1,000 US college students conducted last fall. This poll tackled a number of issues regarding how today’s college students view the balance between free speech and protecting vulnerable groups. We will be making a number of posts to share the results of this poll, and our first one relates to who today’s college students view as appropriate speakers to bring to campus.

We brainstormed a number of potential speakers, some liberal and some conservative. We listed government officials who, even though they have strong political opinions, we felt most of academia would say have a legitimate right to be heard. And, we listed celebrities accused of some reprehensible acts, speakers who have already generated controversy on college campuses, and foreign leaders considered to be rivals of the United States. Our goal was to see where Millennials draw a “line” – at what point is a speaker so controversial or so offensive that he/she would not have the support of students to come to campus to speak. In total, we listed 24 individuals.

The table below shows the percentage of US college students who would support each speaker coming to their campus to speak:

Person Support
Barack Obama 71%
Bernie Sanders 59%
Joe Biden 48%
Hillary Clinton 39%
Colin Kaepernick 35%
Elizabeth Warren 27%
Donald Trump 24%
Caitlyn Jenner 23%
Paul Ryan 21%
Mike Pence 20%
Louis CK 20%
Chelsea Manning 19%
Bill Cosby 19%
Vladimir Putin 19%
Al Sharpton 18%
Rachel Maddow 17%
Bill O’Reilly 17%
Kevin Spacey 16%
Milo Yiannopoulos 16%
OJ Simpson 16%
Ann Coulter 14%
Kim Jong-un 13%
Steve Bannon 13%
Betsy DeVos 11%
Harvey Weinstein 10%

Some interesting conclusions can be made from whom students are willing to support coming to their campus to speak:

  • Only two speakers, Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders, receive support from a majority of college students.
  • Liberal politicians lead the way – with 5 of the top 6 most supported speakers being leading Democrats.
  • Donald Trump, our current president, is only supported by about 1 in 4 (24%) college students as a campus speaker.
  • Celebrities accused of sexual harassment (Louis CK, Bill Cosby, Bill O’Reilly, Kevin Spacey, Harvey Weinstein) are among the least supported potential speakers.

We can also look at the same list, but this time sorted by the percentage of students who oppose them coming to their campus to speak:

Person Oppose
Kim Jong-un 61%
Donald Trump 53%
Bill Cosby 47%
Vladimir Putin 47%
OJ Simpson 45%
Harvey Weinstein 45%
Mike Pence 39%
Kevin Spacey 34%
Caitlyn Jenner 33%
Betsy DeVos 33%
Bill O’Reilly 28%
Steve Bannon 28%
Louis CK 27%
Hillary Clinton 27%
Milo Yiannopoulos 25%
Paul Ryan 24%
Ann Coulter 23%
Colin Kaepernick 18%
Al Sharpton 18%
Rachel Maddow 16%
Chelsea Manning 16%
Joe Biden 15%
Elizabeth Warren 13%
Bernie Sanders 12%
Barack Obama 10%

Here we see that:

  • Donald Trump is clearly polarizing among college students, with 53% saying they would oppose him coming to their campus to speak.
  • The most opposed speakers are foreign leaders/rivals (Kim Jong-Un, Vladimir Putin), Donald Trump, and celebrities who have been accused of serious crimes (Bill Cosby, OJ Simpson, Harvey Weinstein).
  • Surprisingly, some speakers who have had challenges when speaking at college campuses in the past (Ann Coulter, Milo Yiannopoulos) don’t have high levels of opposition in this poll.

These results are disheartening to those who feel that open expression of ideas is central to collegiate life. Perhaps the key conclusion from these data is how few speakers students support – showing a clear tendency of students to avoid perspectives they may find uncomfortable. This attitude has caused many college administrators to stop allowing potentially controversial speakers on campus as they worry about security and the unrest it may cause. Free speech advocates are likely to feel that today’s students are missing out on an educational opportunity – to listen to different perspectives to help shape a world view.

In either case, attitudes towards free speech on campus are very different than a generation ago – a topic we will be pursuing as we release other data from this poll.

The types of people you find in a market research presentation

Last summer I led a market research results presentation at a client’s office. I had not met any of the individuals in the meeting prior to the presentation other than my immediate client-contact. During introductions I tried my best to understand who was who and to carefully observe the dynamics between people. “Knowing thy audience” is key to an effective presentation.

And, I have to admit – within a few minutes I found myself stereotyping the members of my audience. I have delivered scores of presentations in the past and I can usually quickly assess what the dynamic of the room is going to be like and categorize attendees. But, I can also be wrong in my assessment and it isn’t healthy to make assumptions about people without taking the time to truly get to know them. I sort of feel guilty that I find myself doing this.

This particular presentation had gathered an interesting cast of characters and I couldn’t help but think about how they each were similar to people I have presented to in the past at various clients. Anyway, the list below is meant to be a bit humorous, and I think that anyone who has been in market research presentations will see people they recognize below.

“The Characters You Find in a Market Research Presentation.”

  • The Introvert. This is a person who says little during the meeting but her mind is racing. She tends to get active late in the meeting and provides insightful comments because she doesn’t feel a need to chime in on every obvious point. Others in the organization often ignore her because she is introverted but she is often the smartest person in the room. However, she has the potential to derail the end of the meeting by starting an entirely new line of conversation as you are trying to wrap up. How to succeed with the Introvert: Try to engage her early and ask for her perspective late in the meeting as this person often has the best things to say and adds a lot to the discussion if you can draw her out.
  • Mr. (Lack of) Attention Span. This is a person who probably comes late to the meeting and forces you to start over and repeat the first 10 minutes. Once in the meeting, he is constantly checking his phone, having side conversations, and asking questions that you just answered. This is also the person that skips ahead in the deck and won’t let you build a story as you would like. How to succeed with Mr. Attention Span: Do not provide handouts beforehand or during this meeting. Keep the presentation short if possible. State ground rules up front as to when you will pause for questions.
  • The Poseur. This person has a clear view of the world in his mind and will find a way to massage every fact you present to make it fit with a pre-conceived view. He uses your facts to illustrate just how insightful he is and what he already knows. This is the marketer that personifies David Ogilvy’s quote that marketers use research “as a drunkard uses a lamp post, for support rather than for illumination.”   He uses the meeting to become the center of attention. He has to provide his view on every slide and every conclusion you have no matter what the size of the meeting. He dominates and other attendees tend to defer to him before offering their own opinions.  How to succeed with the Poseur:  At the onset, set “pause points” in the presentation — at the end of each section you will call for a discussion. Establish ground rules for the meeting. Ask everyone to write down a prediction on how a research result came out on paper before you show the actual result. Then, call on other individuals to discuss their prediction. Look to qualitative techniques for inspiration on how to handle a dominant focus group participant for inspiration.
  • The Jargon Guy. This is a person who talks a lot but doesn’t really say anything. He is a master of business jargon – it is the person who will use words like “bandwidth”, “game changer”, “visioning”, etc.  He will add “ize” onto nouns to turn them into verbs and use acronyms as much as possible. He reads popular business books on the side. You’ll feel like you are in an episode of “The Office” when you meet him. How to succeed with the Jargon Guy: Learn some of the proprietary jargon and acronyms used by your client’s firm beforehand.
  • The Cherry Picker.  Similar to the Poseur, this is the client who also has a clear “map of the world” established in her head and won’t let facts get in the way of a good opinion. She is active in the discussion but what she does is cherry pick results – and criticizes every point that doesn’t fit with her vision, and falls in love with every point that does. How to succeed with the Cherry Picker: Try to get her to buy into your methodology and lead with conclusions you think are likely to fit with how she thinks. That may get her to listen more to findings that don’t fit with her outlook later on.
  • The Naysayer.  This person doesn’t believe in market research and once he learns the study isn’t perfect will challenge everything you say. He straddles a line between “critic” and “cynic”. How to succeed with the Naysayer: This person can be a useful contributor if you can get his negativity to become constructive and establish the right tone. Fortunately, his concerns can often be anticipated beforehand, and you can often address his concerns before he gets a chance to raise them.
  • The Academic.  The academic asks incredibly detailed questions about the methodology and slows down the initial part of the presentation. This person is usually highly educated and understands the details of statistics and experimental design, sometimes better than you do. The good news is she rarely questions your findings if she agrees with the methods you have employed. How to succeed with the Academic: get to her beforehand and share the details of the methodology so she doesn’t get the meeting off to a bad start by bogging it down with methodological details. This person can be a great ally for you during the talk.
  • The Box Checker.  This is a person who is mainly concerned that the research got done because it is part of a larger marketing process that he is responsible for. He is much more of a “process” than an “outcomes” person and tends to be bureaucratic. How to succeed with the Box Checker:  Make sure he knows the project got done efficiently, on time, and within budget.
  • The Enlightened Leader.  This is the person we all want to present to. It is the highest ranking person in the room, but she casts aside all her other responsibilities for the hour you have with her. For at least one hour, you and your client feel that this study is the most important thing in her life.  She truly listens, doesn’t presume anything, and allows the research to add nuance to her view of the world. She usually insists that others in the meeting take action based on the findings.  How to succeed with the Enlightened Leader: Bring her into the conversation early, as it sets the tone for everyone.

I should note, that with very few exceptions, these personalities tend to be respectful and courteous and less challenging to present to than the above descriptions imply. Above all, preparation is key to success with all types of people. You need to deeply know your data set and have well-supported conclusions and implications, as in the end that tends to get you over any rough spots that arise. Your day-to-day contact needs to be your ally, and running through the presentation in advance with him/her often helps stave off any rough moments. Most research presentations go well, but we aim for them to not just go well, but to be effective. While it might not be appropriate to stereotype as I have done here, it is appropriate to realize each individual is coming to your presentation with his/her own perspective. Understanding that perspective can be as important as the study itself in terms of having research inform better decisions.

Going Mobile

There has been a critical trend happening in market research data collection that is getting little attention. If you are gathering data in online surveys and polls, chances are that most of your respondents are now answering your questionnaires on mobile devices.

This trend snuck up on us. Just three years ago we were advising clients that we were noticing that about 25% of respondents were answering on mobile devices. Of the last 10 projects we have completed, that percentage is now between 75% and 80%. (Our firm conducts a lot of research with younger respondents which likely skews this higher for us than other firms, but it remains the case mobile response has become the norm.)

Survey response tools have evolved considerably. Respondents initially used either the mail or provided responses to an interviewer on the other end of a clipboard. Then, people primarily answered surveys from a tethered land-line phone. The internet revolution made it possible to move data collection to a (stationary) computer. Now, respondents are choosing to answer on a device that is always with them and when and where they choose.

There are always “mode” effects in surveys – whereby the mode itself can influence results. However, the mode effects involved in mobile data collection has not been well-studied. We will sometimes compare mobile versus non-mobile respondents on a specific project, but in our data this is not a fair comparison because there is a self-selection that occurs. Our respondents can choose to respond either on a mobile device or on a desktop/laptop. If we see differences across modes it could simply be due to the nature of the choice respondents make and have little to do with the mode itself.

To study this properly, an experimental design would be needed – where respondents are randomly assigned to a mobile or desktop mode. After searching and asking around to the major panel companies, I wasn’t able to find any such studies that have been conducted.

That is a bit crazy – our respondents are providing data in a new and interesting fashion, and our industry has done little to study how that might influence the usefulness of the information we collect.

Here is what we do know. First, questionnaires do not look the same on mobile devices as they do on laptops. Most types of questions look similar, but grid-style questions look completely different.  Typically, on a mobile device respondents will see one item at a time and on a desktop they will see the entire list. This will create a greater response-set type bias on the desktop version. I’d say that this implies that a mode effect likely does occur and that it doesn’t vary in the same way across all types of questions you are asking.

Second, the limited real estate of a mobile device makes wordy questions and responses look terrible. Depending on the survey system you are using, a lengthy question can require both horizontal and vertical scrolling, almost guaranteeing that respondents won’t attend to it.

Our own anecdotal information suggests that mobile respondents will complete a questionnaire faster, are more likely to suspend the survey part-way, and provide less rich open-ended responses.

So, how can we guard against these mode effects? Well, in the absence of research-on-research that outlines their nature, we have a few suggestions:

  • First and foremost, we need to develop a “mobile-first” mentality when designing questionnaires. Design your questionnaire for mobile and adapt it as necessary for the desktop. This is likely opposite to what you are currently doing.
  • Mobile-first means minimizing wording and avoiding large grid-type questions. If you must use grids, use fewer scale points and keep the number of items to a minimum.
  • Visuals are tough … remember that you have a 5 or 6 inch display to work with when showing images. You are limited here.
  • Don’t expect much from open-ended questions. Open-ends on mobile have to be precisely worded and not vague. We often find that clients expect too much from open-ended responses.
  • Test the questionnaire on mobile. Most researchers who are designing and testing questionnaires are looking at a desktop/laptop screen all day long, and our natural tendency is to only test on a desktop. Start your testing on mobile and then move to the desktop.
  • Shorten your questionnaires. It seems likely that respondents will have more patience for lengthy surveys when they are taking them on stationary devices as opposed to devices that are with them at all (sometimes distracting) times.
  • Finally, educate respondents not to answer these surveys when they themselves are “mobile.” With the millions of invitations and questionnaires our industry is fulfilling, we need to be sure we aren’t distracting respondents while they are driving.

In the long run, as even more respondents choose mobile this won’t be a big issue. But, if you have a tracking study in place you should wonder if the movement to mobile is affecting your data in ways you aren’t anticipating.

Will Big Data Kill Traditional Market Research?

Most of today’s research methods rely on a simple premise:  asking customers questions can yield insights that drive better decisions. This is traditionally called primary research because it involves gathering new data. It is often supplemented with secondary research, which involves looking at information that already exists, such as sales data, publicly available data, etc.  Primary and secondary research yield what I would call active data –individuals are providing data with their knowledge and consent.

We are moving to a passive data world. This involves analyzing data left behind as we live increasingly digital lives. When we breathe online we leave a trail of digital data crumbs everywhere – where we visit, what we post about, link to, the apps we use, etc. We also leave trails as to when and where we are when we do these things, what sequence we do them in, and even what those close to us do.

Our digital shadows are long. And these shadows provide an incredibly accurate version of ourselves. You may not remember what you had to eat a few days ago, but the Internet knows exactly what books you read, how fast you read them, and when you bought them. The Internet knows where you were when you looked up health information, your favorite places to travel, whether you lean liberal or conservative, and much more. Your digital shadow is alarmingly accurate.

Privacy issues aside, this creates exciting possibilities for market research.

The amount of information available is staggering.  It is estimated that the volume of digital information available is doubling about every 18 months. This means in the next year and a half we will create as much data as we have since the Internet was created. Clearly it is easy to drown in the noise of this data, and many certainly do. But, in some ways analyzing this data isn’t unlike what we have been doing for years. It is easy to drown in a data set if you don’t have clear hypotheses that you are pursuing.  Tapping into the power of Big Data is all about formulating the right questions before firing up the laptop.

So, how will Big Data change traditional, “active” research? Why would we need to ask people questions when we can track their actual behaviors more accurately?

Big Data will not obviate the need for traditional survey research. But, it will reposition it. Survey research will change and be reserved for marketing problems it is particularly well suited for.  Understanding underlying motivations of behavior will always require that we talk directly to consumers, if only to probe why their reported behavior differs from their actual behavior.

There are situations when Big Data techniques will triumph. We are noticing compelling examples of how Big Data analysis can save the world.  For instance, medical researchers are looking into diseases that are asymptomatic. Typically, an early doctor’s appointment for these diseases will consist of a patient struggling to remember symptoms and warning signs and when they might have had them.  An analysis of Google searches can look at people who can be inferred to have been diagnosed with the disease from their search behavior. Then, their previous search behavior can be analyzed to see if they were curious about symptoms and when.  In the hands of a skilled analyst, this can lead to new insights regarding the early warning signs of diseases that often are diagnosed too late.

There has been chatter that public health officials can track the early spread of the flu better each year by analyzing search trends than by using their traditional ways, which track doctor visits for the flu and prescriptions dispensed. The reason is that people Google for “flu symptoms” in advance of going to the doctor, and many who have symptoms don’t go to the doctor at all. A search trend analysis can help public health officials react faster to outbreaks.

This is all pretty cool. Marketers are all about delivering the right message to the right people at the right time, and understanding how prior online behavior predicts future decisions will be valued. Big Data is accurate in a way that surveys cannot be because memory is imperfect.

Let’s be clear. I don’t think that people lie on surveys, at least not purposefully. But there are memory errors that harm the ability of a survey to uncover the truth. For instance, I could ask on a survey what books you have read in the past month. But, sales data from the Kindle Store would probably be more accurate.

However, what proponents of “Big Data will take over the world” don’t realize is the errors that respondents make on surveys can be more valuable to marketers than the truth because their recollections are often more predictive of their future behavior than their actual past behavior. What you think you had for dinner two nights ago probably predicts what you will eat tonight better than what you actually may have eaten. Perceptions can be more important than reality and marketing is all about dealing with perceptions.

The key for skilled researchers is going to be to learn when Big Data techniques are superior and when traditional techniques will yield better insights. Big Data is a very big hammer, but isn’t suitable for every size nail.

It is an exciting time for our field. Data science and data analysis skills are going to become even more valuable in the labor market than they are today. While technical database and statistical skills will be important, in a Big Data era it will be even more important to have skills in developing the right questions to pursue in the first place and a solid understanding of the issues our clients face.

How Market Research Contributes to the Opioid Epidemic

Opioid misuse has risen to the level of national emergency. The facts are alarming. More people now die of drug abuse than car accidents in the US. Painkiller prescriptions by doctors are now sufficient for each American adult to have a bottle of pills. And, a US citizen dies about every 10 minutes from an opioid overdose. Perhaps the only thing more stunning than the facts behind this issue is how long it has taken to become considered a crisis.

Like many complex public health issues, the opioid crisis has many causes and owners. This makes it more challenging to solve as there isn’t just one “villain” responsible. There are issues of personal responsibility of the opioid user himself/herself, lack of familial support systems, and lack of education. There are legal causes – a lack of an effective regulatory environment and a continued failure to stem a supply of illegal and prescribed narcotics from getting into the wrong hands. The health care community has focused on pain management, been highly influenced by pharma companies who manufacture opioids, and doctors have willingly over-prescribed opioids (in a few years it is projected that there will be on average one opioid prescription for every person living in the US). And, “aggressive” would be too mild a term to describe how pharma companies have marketed these drugs to doctors and consumers.

I am sure that if you talk about the opioid crisis with others and ask what has caused it, “market research” would not be something that is apt to come up. But, our industry has played an important role in creating an environment in health care that is conducive to over-prescription of opioids. Let me explain.

In the late 1980’s a business trend called Total Quality Management became established in US businesses. It was largely a reaction to a perceived threat to US manufacturing from Japan, and it focused highly on statistical measurement. Put simply, TQM assumed that you can’t improve something if you can’t measure it. TQM first gained hold in US manufacturing (where it is still commonly employed). But, it wasn’t long until it spread like wildfire throughout all types of US businesses, including those in the service sector.

This was a boon for market research. The firm I first joined in market research was a custom research company and customer satisfaction measurement was a primary expertise. It was perfect timing – we were in a great position to conduct surveys supporting TQM efforts taking place in a wide variety of industries.

One of these was health care. The 80’s and 90’s were transitionary times in our health care system, as HMO’s and insurance companies became much more powerful and began to “manage” health care. They more tightly controlled which procedures would be reimbursed, and, for better or worse, exerted much greater oversight over the care that doctor’s provided to patients.

This was happening at the same time TQM became all the rage in business. So, insurance companies, hospital administrations, and regulators all began to insist on TQM measures in health care. One of the most important of these was the patient satisfaction survey.

Research companies responded. A few major players emerged, and the company I worked for became a mid-sized supplier in this area. We had an excellent approach and established a small team to work on it, which I eventually managed for a couple of years in the 90s. Patient satisfaction surveys blossomed, and are still in widespread use. I’d guess that if you have ever been to a hospital for a procedure, you’ve been asked to fill out a questionnaire shortly after your visit.

Health care providers, namely doctors, hated these surveys. With umpteen years of medical training behind them, why were they now being evaluated by what their patients thought of the quality of the care they provided? They resisted these surveys and still do.

At the time, we chalked this resistance up to the fact that no professional wants to be evaluated this way. I know I resisted when we started asking clients what they thought of our work and when the results were incorporated into my performance reviews.

We saw this doctor resistance as a misunderstanding of what we were measuring and also a misuse of our data by hospital administrators. In any service delivery, there are two contributors to outcomes: 1) the quality of the service being delivered and 2) the manner in which it is delivered. In many contexts, including health care, consumers should not be placed in a position to evaluate the former. Health care quality assessment is the province of experts, and peers and medically-trained supervisors are probably in the best position to evaluate it.

However, the latter (how the service is delivered) is best evaluated by patients. Our studies constantly showed that doctors understated the importance of these “bedside manner” measures. In our models, these softer issues dominated a patient’s willingness to comply with the physician’s instructions. And, what use is the doctor’s expertise if the patient doesn’t do what he/she says? (As an aside, the nursing profession loved these surveys, as the analyses often showed that the nurse was more important than the doctor in garnering patient compliance).

We were strong advocates for these surveys and how they empowered patients to become an important part of their own health care. Survey results would cause doctors to become better communicators with patients.

With 25 years of hindsight, I can now say that these surveys had a painful unintended consequence: they contributed to the opioid epidemic in this country.

Just as these surveys were taking hold in health care, two important things occurred:  1) the pharma industry developed new forms of opioid painkillers and marketed them aggressively to doctors, and 2) the medical profession adopted pain as a “fifth vital sign” (along with blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, and temperature.) Prior, pain had been viewed as a symptom, and not an objectively measured sign.

This was a watershed moment for the opioid issue. Now, health care providers were constantly asking patients about their pain level (on a 0 to 10 scale or a smiley-face scale). Doctors focused on pain, and there was a widely held perception that pain was being undertreated in patients. This happened precisely at a time when new forms of opioids were available for prescription.

So, what does the patient satisfaction survey have to do with all this? Well, in most of the analyses we would do, a patient’s satisfaction with a doctor visit or procedure was always highly correlated with one item:  “did you feel better as a result of the appointment?” Reduction of pain and patient satisfaction were largely the same thing. We’d move past this in the analysis and tell clients that beyond pain relief, there were bedside manner measures that did matter and that were in their control to change. This is analogous to studies researchers do on consumer products. Price usually overwhelms our models. So, we mention that, and then give guidance about other things beyond price that you can work on.

Hospitals and doctors were being held accountable to the results of these surveys. They quickly learned that pain relief was paramount to how they would be evaluated. This put pressure on them to prescribe opioids for mild ailments. Prior to this time, opioids were mainly used short-term for acute cases and for patients recovering from surgery. Now, they were being prescribed for every-day ailments – toothaches, back pain, broken bones, etc.  At this time pharma companies were downplaying the potential of addiction to these drugs, marketing them heavily, and as a result prescriptions soared.

Of course, I wouldn’t want to overstate the contribution of the market research community to this national crisis. This is however a good example of the importance and unintended consequences of our work. There was a perfect storm of things brewing – the TQM fad, increased power of insurance companies, the development and marketing of new drugs, and a focus on pain management in health care.

I also don’t advocate that we end the patient survey. It provides important feedback to health care providers and I strongly feel that it has resulted in better communications between providers and patients. But, results shouldn’t be used so prominently in the evaluations of hospitals and their staff and the content of these surveys should shift from pain measures. It will take a lot of effort in a lot of directions to resolve the opioid issue, and our industry has an important role to play.

 “Gen Z” should make you cringe!

Adults have a number of misconceptions about youth generations. A glaring one is a tendency to think that a new generation will become a more intense version of the previous generation. That is rarely the case – new generations tend to sharply break with the old.

Let’s start by reviewing what a generation is. A generation is a cohort of people who share a common location in history. A generation progresses through life stages together and experiences key life events (childhood, adolescence, family life, retirement) at the same time. While our life stages change as we age, our generation does not. There is a commonality of experience and perspective that influences how a generation reacts to challenges presented by any given life stage.

While generational beginning and end points are hotly debated by academics, they tend to be bounded by historical events. For instance, the Boomer generation is known as the generation born after WWII ended as birth rates rapidly grew. Xers are those that were born during the subsequent demographic dip. Millennials began as an “echo” boom occurred as the large Boomer generation had their own children.

Generational change is abrupt and disruptive.  My own experience with this goes back to when the Millennial Generation (born 1982 – 2004) was coming of age in the 1990’s. At the time I was conducting studies of young people and was noticing clear breaks in the data sets. Inflection points often appeared when we graphed research measures by age. It took me years to realize these inflection points weren’t linked to a stage of development or age as they were migrating upwards over time. Eventually, I discovered these inflections were happening right at the generational break line – as soon as individuals born in the early 80’s came into the data sets, things changed.

It took me years to figure this out because this generation was most commonly referred to as Gen Y at the time. What does Gen Y mean? To me, it meant this new group would be a continuation of Gen X – only they would exhibit Gen X traits at higher intensity. I went to many youth conferences where speakers said precisely this. I often left puzzled, as what they were saying didn’t line up with what I was seeing in the data we gathered.

This new generation wasn’t behaving anything like Gen X. While Gen X was filled with latchkey kids who had developed a strong sense of individualism, independence, and self-worth, this new generation was all about teamwork, parental structure and oversight, and continuous feedback and validation. Calling them Gen Y seemed ridiculous as it implied they were merely an extension of Gen X. Thankfully, although the Gen Y moniker persisted, the term Millennial soon took hold.

Generations have unique characteristics and tendencies. These characteristics are almost never simply continuations of a previous generation’s characteristics. We can all agree that Boomers have not acted at all like their Silent Generation predecessors or that Xers haven’t been at all like Boomers. Millennials represent a further break with Xers.

There is no authority that has been commissioned to name a generation. Generations prior to Boomers weren’t really named during their time and many will claim that the Boomers were the first named generation. Prior generations were largely named by historians long after they had existed. For example, nobody called the WWII generation the “greatest generation” or the “GI generation” at the time – these terms took hold well after Boomers had been named.

Generational names evolve. Names often begin as something that underscore how adults don’t understand that generations are not just continuations of the previous generations. As an example, Gen X was most commonly called “the baby bust” generation at first, implying that they were  merely a consequence of a birth rate decline extending from the baby boom era. The term “Gen X” was popularized in a novel by Douglas Coupland. It became popular not because of the letter X but what this letter signified – a lack of a name for a largely forgotten generation, but also one that wasn’t particularly interested in being categorized or targeted.

The term Millennial was also established relatively late in the game. It was popularized in a book called Millennials Rising, and prior names either reflected a continuation of a parental generation (“the echo boom”, the “boomlet”) or of Gen X (“Generation Y.”). Millennials is a much better name and has largely taken over for “Generation Y.”

The whole purpose of naming generations from a marketing sense is that generations represent segments of consumers with unique needs. Our goal in naming them should be to show how they are distinct from each other.

Which brings me to Gen Z. This is a term we are seeing more and more, and I am tending to feel that those who use it are displaying a fundamental ignorance not only of generational change but even what a generation is. Gen Z tends to be used to describe today’s adolescents. But, because the youngest Millennial is currently 13 years old, the term Gen Z isn’t being applied to a new generation at all. It is being used to describe young, late-stage Millennials, which is sort of a segment of a segment.

The key characteristic of this microsegment (late-stage Millennials) of interest to researchers is that their parental generation has changed. Whereas the oldest half of the Millennial generation was largely parented by Boomers, the younger half has been parented by Gen X. This has some implications, but today’s teens are still Millennials and will exhibit Millennial traits.

The term “Gen Z” makes is cringe-worthy as it lays bare a fundamental misunderstanding of the generations. I even saw a study released recently on “Gen Z college students.”  Not sure I understand that, as the leading edge of the generation after Millennials is at most 12 years old currently. We are at least five years from the first member of the next generation showing up on campus.

“Gen Z” is also being used to refer to the generation that will come after Millennials (currently children aged up to 12 and yet to be born).  I have also seen this new generation referred to as “post-Millennial.”  And, what are we to name the generation that comes after this Gen Z? We’ve run out of letters, so perhaps we will have to use a spreadsheet convention and call them Generation AA.

Just like for previous generations, I’d expect to see today’s youngest generation eventually named in a way that describes who they are. I have heard some reasonable candidates:  The Homeland Generation, the iGen, The Pluralist Generation, etc. These all are descriptive. If the past is any indication, sometime in the next 10 years some name will achieve consensus (and it won’t be “Gen Z”).

For now please join me in cringing whenever you hear someone say the term “Gen Z.” J.

Will Blockchain Disrupt Marketing and Research?

The field of survey research was largely established in the 1930s and matured in the post WWII era as the US economy boomed and companies became more customer-driven. Many early polls were conducted in the most old-fashioned way possible: by going door-to-door with a clipboard and pestering people with questions. Adoption of the telephone in the US (which happened slowly – telephone penetration was less than 50% before WWII and didn’t hit 90% until 1972) made possible an efficient way to reliably gather projectable samples of consumers and the research industry grew quickly.

Then the Internet changed everything. I was fortunate to be at a firm that was leading the charge for online market research at a time when Internet penetration in the US was only about 20%. By the time I left the firm, Internet penetration had reached over 85% and online market research had pretty much supplanted telephone research. What had taken the telephone 40+ years to do to door-to-door polling had happened in less than 10 years, completely transforming an industry.

So, what is next? What nascent technology might transform the market research industry?

Keep your eyes on Blockchain.

Blockchain is best known as the technology that underpins cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The actual technology of Blockchain is complex and difficult for most people to understand. (I’d be lying if I said I understood the technology.) But, Blockchain is conceptually simple. It is a way to exchange value and trust between strangers in an un-hackable way and without the need for middlemen. It allows value to be exchanged and stored securely and privately. Whereas the Internet moves information, Blockchain moves value.

Those interested in the potential for Blockchain technology should read The Blockchain Revolution by Don and Alex Tapscott. Or, if you’d like a shortcut, you can watch Don’s excellent Ted Talk.

If Blockchain gains steam and hits a critical mass of acceptance, it has the potential to transform everything including our financial system, our contracts, our elections, our corporate structures, and our governments. It has applicability for any aspect of life that involves an exchange of value that requires an element of trust – which is pretty much everything we do to interact as human beings.

A simple example of how it works is provided by its first widespread application – as a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. Currently, if I buy a book online, my transaction passes though many intermediaries that are often transparent to me. My money might move from my credit card company to my bank, to another bank, to Amazon, their bank, to the bookseller, to their bank, and I suppose eventually a few crumbs make their way to the author (via their bank of course). There are markups all along the way that are taken by all the intermediaries who don’t add value beyond facilitating the transaction. And, at every step there is an opportunity for my data to be compromised and hacked. The digital shadow left allows all sorts of third parties to know what I am reading and even where I am reading it.

This is an imperfect system at best and one that a cryptocurrency resolves. Via Bitcoin, I can buy a book directly from an author, securely, with no opportunity for others to see what I am doing or to skim value along the way. In fact, the author and I remain strangers.

Blockchain is mostly known currently as Bitcoin’s technology, but its potential dwarfs its current use. Blockchain will clearly transform the financial services industry, and for the better. Buyers and sellers can transact anonymously and securely without a need for intermediaries. Stocks can be exchanged directly by buyers and sellers, and this could lead to a world devoid of investment banks, brokers, and hedge fund managers, or at least one where their roles become strictly advisory.

A useful way to think of the potential of Blockchain is to think of trust. Trust in an economic sense lowers transactions costs and decreases risk. Why do I need lawyers and a contract if I can fully trust my contractor to do what he/she promises? Why do I need Uber when I can contract directly with the driver? As transactions costs decline, we’ll see a much more “democratized” economy. Smaller entities will no longer be at a disadvantage. The costs of coordinating just about anything will decline, resulting in a smaller and very different role for management. If Blockchain really ignites, I’d expect to see flatter corporate structures, very little middle management, and a greater need for truly inspirational leaders.

Any industry reliant on payment systems or risk is ripe for disruption via Blockchain technology. Retail, insurance, government contracting, etc. will all be affected. But, Blockchain isn’t just about payments.  Payments are just a tangible manifestation of what Blockchain really facilitates – which is an exchange of value. Value isn’t always monetary.

Which brings me (finally!) to our field: marketing and marketing research. Marketers and market researchers are “middlemen” – and any middleman has the potential to be affected by Blockchain technology. We stand between the corporation and its customers.

Marketers should realize Blockchain may have important implications to the brand. A brand is essentially a manifestation of trust. In the current digital world, many marketers struggle to retain control of their brands. This is upsetting to those of us trained in historical brand management. Blockchain will result in a greater focus on the brand by customers. They will seek to trust the brand more because Blockchain can enable this trust.

As a researcher I see Blockchain as making it essential that I add value to the process as opposed to being a conduit for the exchange of value. Put more simply, Blockchain will make it even more important that researchers add insight rather than merely gather data. In custom research about half of the cost of a market research project is wrapped up in data collection and that is the part that seems most ripe for disruption. There won’t be as many financial rewards for researchers for the operational aspects of projects. But, there will always be a need to help marketers make sense of the world.

When we design a survey, we are seeking information from a respondent. This information might be classification information (information about who you are), behavioral information (information about what you do), or attitudinal information (information about what you think and feel). In all cases, as a researcher, I am trusting that respondents will provide this information to me willingly and accurately.  As a respondent, you trust me to keep your identity confidential and to provide you an honorarium or incentive for your time. We are exchanging value – you are providing me with information and your time, and I am providing you with compensation and a comfort that you are helping clients better understand the needs of their customers. Blockchain has the potential to make this process more efficient and beneficial to the respondent. And that is important – our industry is suffering from a severe respondent trust problem right now. We don’t have to look much past our plummeting response rates to see that we have lost the respondent trust. Blockchain may be one way we can earn it back.

Blockchain can also authenticate the information we analyze. It can sort out fake data, such as fake postings on websites. To its core, Blockchain makes data transfers simple, secure, and efficient. It can help us more securely store personal information, which in turn will assure our respondents that they can trust us.

Blockchain can provide individuals with greater control over their “digital beings.” Currently, as we go about our lives (smartphone in pocket) we leave digital traces everywhere. This flotsam of our digital lives has value and is gathered and used by companies and governments, and has spawned new research techniques to mine value from this passive data stream. The burgeoning field of Big Data analysis is dependent on this trail we leave. Privacy concerns aside, it doesn’t seem right that consumers are creating a value they do not get to benefit from. Blockchain technology has the potential to allow individuals to retain control and to benefit from the trail of value they are leaving behind as they negotiate a digital world.

Of course as a research supplier I can also see Blockchain as a threat, as suppliers are middlemen between clients and their customers. Blockchain has the potential to replace, or at least enhance, any third-party relationship.  But, I envision Blockchain as being beneficial to smaller suppliers like Crux Research. Blockchain will require suppliers to be more value-added consultants, and less about reliable data collection. That is precisely what smaller suppliers do better than the larger firms, so I would predict that more smaller firms will be started as a result.

Blockchain is clearly in its infancy for marketers. Its potential may prove to be greater than its reality. But, just as we saw with the rise of the Internet, a technology such as this can grow up quickly, and can transform our industry.


Visit the Crux Research Website www.cruxresearch.com

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.