Posts Tagged 'Coronavirus'

Online education will need to change before it rules higher education

We recently conducted a poll of college students around the world about their experiences with online education this spring that resulted from the pandemic. The short answer is students didn’t fare well and are highly critical of the ability of online education to engage them and to deliver instruction. This isn’t a subtle, nuanced finding. A large majority of college students worldwide thought the online education they received this spring was ineffective and unengaging.

I held out hope that the pandemic would be the event that finally kickstarted online education. Our poll results have me doubting it will, which is a shame as online education holds enormous potential. It is a new technology that is, for some reason, being held back. If you think about it, we have had all the technology needed to take education online for at least 10 years, yet for the most part the traditional university system has remained as it was a generation ago.

I’ve always been interested in new “media” technologies because I’ve noticed a pattern in their emergence. Almost always, they begin as a nifty new delivery system for content that was developed with the “old” media. The earliest radio shows largely consisted of people reading the newspapers aloud and playing music. Early television mostly adapted content from radio – serialized dramas, variety shows, baseball games, etc. The Internet 1.0 largely just electronically expectorated content that existed in other forms.

After a bit of a gestation period, “new” media eventually thrive as they take advantage of their technological uniqueness and content evolves along with the new distribution system. The result is something really special and not just a new way to deliver old things.

There are many examples. Radio moved to become central to family entertainment and ritual in a way the newspaper could not. Television developed the Saturday morning lineup, the situation comedy, talk shows, etc., none of which could have worked as well on radio. And, the Internet evolved and became interactive, with user-created content, product reviews, with a melding of content and commerce that isn’t possible in other media. In all cases, the “new” media gestated awhile by mimicking the old but once they found their way their value grew exponentially. The old media didn’t go away, but got repositioned to a narrower niche.

This hasn’t happened in higher education. Streaming your lecture on Zoom might be necessary during a pandemic but it is not what online education should be about. Students consistently tell us it doesn’t work for them. Parents and students don’t feel it provides the value they expect from college, which is why we are starting to see lawsuits where students are demanding tuition refunds from colleges that moved education online this spring.

We composed a post a little while ago that posited that the reason digital textbooks really haven’t made much of a difference in colleges is because textbook publishers have prevented this synergy from happening. Most digital textbooks today are simply a regurgitation of a printed textbook that you can read on a computer. Our surveys show that the number one way a digital textbook is read remains by viewing a PDF. That is hardly taking advantage of what today’s technology has to offer.

The potential for the digital textbook is much greater. In fact, it wouldn’t be a textbook at all. Instead, there could be a digital nexus of all that is going on in a course, conducted, coached, and curated by the instructor. Imagine a “book” that could take you on an interactive tour. It could link you to lectures by world-renown people. It could show practitioners applying the knowledge they gained in the course. It could contain formative assessments where you could determine how you are progressing and then adapt to focus you where you need individualized help. A tutor would be a link away. Other students could comment and help you.

Your instructor could become a coach rather than a sage. This wouldn’t be a textbook at all, but a melding of course materials and instruction and collaborative tools.

This technology exists today, yet publishers and colleges have too much of a self-interest not to innovate. Education is suffering because of it.

This spring most college instructors had one or two weeks to figure out how to move their instruction online with little help from textbook publishers or technology companies. They had no choice but to adapt their existing course to a new delivery system. So, they pointed a camera on themselves and called it online education.

It is no wonder that online education largely failed our students. Every poll I have seen, including a few Crux has conducted, has shown that students found online education to be vastly inferior to traditional instruction this spring.

But, did you know this isn’t new? College students have long been critical of online education. I’ve asked questions about online education to college students for almost 20 years. While many appreciate the convenience of an online course and that it can cost less, a very large majority of those taking online courses say they aren’t an effective way to learn. Almost all say that they would have learned better in a traditional course. It is a rare student that chooses an online course because it is an effective way to learn. When they choose an online course, it is because it fits better into their life situation and not because it is an effective way to learn.

Why? Because online course providers really haven’t taken advantage of a “new” medium. They are still adapting traditional education and placing it online rather than embracing the uniqueness that online education can provide. They are firmly ensconced in Internet 1.0 a decade or two after all other industries have moved on. Compared to a decade ago we shop completely differently. We watch entertainment completely differently. We communicate with others completely differently. Yet, our children attend college the same way their parents and grandparents did.

Course management systems do exist, but to date they haven’t fundamentally changed the nature of a college course. We ask about course management systems on surveys as well, and college students find them to be moderately helpful, but hardly game changing.

One of Crux’s largest clients is a supplemental education company that provides resources to college students who don’t feel they are getting the support they need from their college or their professors. This company has been one of the best performing companies in the US since COVID-19 hit and so many courses moved online. This client is well-managed and has a great vision and brilliant employees. But, if educators had fully figured out how to effectively educate online, I don’t think they could be as successful as they have been because students wouldn’t have such a pressing need for outside help. Because of higher education’s unwillingness or inability to adapt, I expect this client to thrive for a long time.

It is sad in a way to think that our colleges and universities, who should be on the forefront of technology and innovation, are sadly lacking in adapting course materials and instruction to the Internet. Especially when you consider that these are the same entities that largely invented the Internet.

Living near Rochester NY, it is easy to see a parallel to the Eastman Kodak company. Kodak had one of the strongest brands in the world, was tightly identified with imaging and photography, and had invented almost all of the core technologies needed for digital photography. All at a time when the number of images consumers were about to capture was about to explode literally by a factor of about 10,000, maybe 100,000. But, because of an inability to break out of an old way of thinking and an inertia to hang on too long to an “old” media, one of America’s great companies was essentially reduced to a business school case in how to grab defeat from the jaws of opportunity.

Is this a cautionary tale for colleges and universities? Sure. I suspect that elite college brands will continue to do well as they cater to a wealthy demographic that has done quite well during the pandemic. But, for the rest of us, who send students to non-elite institutions, I expect to see colleges face enormous financial pressures and to see many college brands go the road of Kodak over the next decade. Their ticket to a better path is to more effectively use technology.

Online education has the potential to cure some of what ails the US higher education system. It can adapt quickly to market demand for workers. It can provide much wider access to the best and brightest teachers. It can aggregate a mass of students who might be interested in a highly specialized field, and thus become more targeted. And, it may finally be what finally fixes the high cost of higher education.

Will online education will thrive in the US? Not until it changes to take advantage of what an interconnected world has to offer. The time is right for colleges to truly tap into the power of what online education can be. This is really the only way colleges will be able to charge the tuition levels they have become accustomed to charging and until online education becomes synonymous with quality education, many colleges will struggle.

This is taking far too long but I am hopeful that kickstarting this process will be one silver lining to come out of the upheaval to education that has been caused by the pandemic.

What are the best COVID-19 polls?

The COVID-19 crisis is affecting all types of organizations. Many, including some of our clients, are commissioning private polls to help predict the specific impact of the pandemic on their business. Fortunately, there are a number of well-regarded research and polling organizations conducting polls that are publicly released. Unfortunately, there are also disreputable polls out there and can be challenging to sort out the good from the bad.

We’ve been closely watching the COVID-19 polls and have found some that stand out from the rest. We felt it would be a good idea to list them here to save you some time as you look for polling information.

  • First, although it is not a poll, a useful site to look at is the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. This site contains the results of a model projecting numbers of deaths from COVID-19, beds needed versus hospital capacity, etc. This is one of the most credible models out there, and the one that seems to be cited the most in the media and by the federal government.
  • Johns Hopkins University maintains a coronavirus tracking center which is the definitive place to go to track cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from COVID-19. 

Below is a list of opinion polls we’ve found most interesting. There are a lot of polls out there. The ones listed below are from trusted organizations and would be a good place to start your search. There are many polls available that concentrate on things like the public’s opinion of the government’s handling of the crisis. The polls below go a bit deeper and are far more interesting in our view. There are likely other good polls out there, but these are the best ones we have found thus far.

  • The Harris Poll COVID-19 trackerThis is perhaps the most comprehensive COVID-19 polling we have discovered, and it tracks back to early March. If you have time for just one polling site this is probably the one to check out.
  • PewPew is a widely-respected organization that has conducted many polls on COVID-19 topics.
  • The COVID Impact Survey. This is an independent, non-governmental survey being conducted by NORC along with some respected foundations. 
  • Dynata. Dynata has a tracking poll going on COVID-19 that is interesting because it spans multiple countries. Dynata is also doing a “symptom map” based on their polling worldwide. This is interesting as it shows how symptoms are trending around the world, in the US by state, and even in NYC by neighborhood. However, we feel that a Google Trends search would provide better data that survey research on symptoms. 
  • IPSOS.  IPSOS is also conducting worldwide polls
  • Simpson Scarborough. This poll is specific to higher education and the implications of COVID-19 on college students. If you work in higher education or have a college-aged child, you are likely to find this one interesting.
  • University of Massachusetts Amherst. This one is different and interesting. It shows the results of an ongoing survey of infectious disease experts, containing their predictions for the impacts of the disease.  It is updated weekly.  FiveThirtyEight is summarizing this work and it is probably easiest to read their summaries than to go to the original source. I must say, though, I have been watching this poll carefully, and the experts haven’t been all that accurate in their predictions, missing on the high side consistently.

There are undoubtedly many more good polls out there. Those mentioned above are from non-partisan, trusted organizations.

How COVID-19 may change Market Research

Business life is changing as COVID-19 spreads in the US and the world. In the market research and insights field there will be both short-term and long-term effects. It is important that clients and suppliers begin preparing for them.

This has been a challenging post to write. First, in the context of what many people are going though in their personal and business lives as a result of this disruption, writing about what might happen to one small sector of the business world can come across as uncaring and tone-deaf, which is not the intention. Second, this is a quickly changing situation and this post has been rewritten a number of times in the past week. I have a feeling it may not age well.

Nonetheless, market research will be highly impacted by this situation. Below are some things we think will likely happen to the market research industry.

  • An upcoming recession will hit the MR industry hard. Market research is not an investment that typically pays off quickly. Companies that are forced to pare back will cut their research spending and likely their staffs.
  • Cuts will affect clients more than suppliers. In previous recessions, clients have cut MR staff and outsourced work to suppliers. This is an opportunity for suppliers that know their clients’ businesses well and can step up to help.
  • Unlike a lot of other types of industries, it is the large suppliers that are most at risk of losing work. Publicly-held research suppliers will be under even more intense pressure from their investors than usual. There will most certainly be cost cutting at these firms, and if the concerns over the virus persist, it will lead to layoffs.
  • The smallest suppliers could face an existential risk. Many independent contractors and small firms are dependent on one or two clients for the bulk of their revenue. If those clients are in highly affected sectors, these small suppliers will be at risk of going out of business.
  • Smallish to mid-sized suppliers may emerge stronger. Clients are going to be under cost pressures due to a receding economy and smaller research suppliers tend to be less expensive. Smaller research firms did well post 9/11 and during the recession of 2008-09 because clients moved work from higher priced larger firms to them. Smaller research firms would be wise to build tight relationships so that when the storm over the virus abates, they will have won their clients trust for future projects.
  • New small firms will emerge as larger firms cut staff and create refugees who will launch new companies.

Those are all items that might pertain to any sort of sudden business downturn. There are also some things that we think will happen that are specific to the COVID-19 situation:

  • Market research conferences will never be the same. Conferences are going to have difficulty drawing speakers and attendees. Down the line, conferences will be smaller and more targeted and there will be more virtual conferences and training sessions scheduled. At a minimum, companies will send fewer people to research conferences.
  • This will greatly affect MR trade associations as these conferences are important revenue sources for them. They will rethink their missions and revenue models, and will become less dependent on their signature events. The associations will have more frequent, smaller, more targeted online events. The days of the large, comprehensive research conference may be over.
  • Business travel will not return to its previous level. There will be fewer in-person meetings between clients and suppliers and those that are held will have fewer participants. Video conferencing will become an even more important way to reach clients.
  • Clients and suppliers will allow much more “work from home.” It may become the norm that employees are only expected to be in the office for key meetings. The situation with COVID-19 will give companies who don’t have a lot of experience allowing employees to work from home the opportunity to see the value in it. When the virus is under control, they will embrace telecommuting. We will see this crisis kick-start an already existing movement towards allowing more employees to work from home. The amount of office space needed will shrink.
  • Research companies will review and revise their sick-leave policies and there will be pressure on them to make them more generous.
  • Companies that did the right thing during the crisis will be rewarded with employee loyalty. Employees will become more attached and appreciative of suppliers that showed flexibility, did what they could to maintain payroll, and expressed genuine concerns for their employees.

Probably the biggest change we will see in market research projects is to qualitative research.

  • While there will always be great value in traditional, in-person focus groups , the situation around COVID-19 is going to cause online qualitative to become the standard approach. We are at a time where the technologies available for online qualitative are well-developed, yet clients and suppliers have clung to traditional methods. To date, the technology has been ahead of the demand. Companies will be forced by travel restrictions to embrace online methods and this will be at the expense of traditional groups. This is an excellent time to be in the online qualitative technology business. It is not such a great time to be in the focus group facility management business.
  • Independent moderators, who work exclusively with traditional groups, are going to be in trouble and not just in the short term. Many of these individuals will retire or look for work elsewhere or leave research. Others will necessarily adapt to online methods. Of course, there will continue to be independent moderators but we are predicting the demand for in-person groups will be permanently affected, and this portion of the industry will significantly shrink.
  • There is a risk that by not commissioning as much in-person qualitative, marketers may become further removed from direct human interaction with their customer base. This is a very real concern. We wouldn’t be in market research if we didn’t have an affinity for data and algorithms, but qualitative research is what keeps all of our efforts grounded. I’d caution clients to think carefully before removing all in-person interaction from your research plans.

What will happen to quantitative research? In the short-run, most studies will continue. Respondents are home, have free time, and thus far have shown they are willing to take part in studies. Some projects, typically in highly affected industries like travel and entertainment, are being postponed or canceled. All current data sets need to be viewed with a careful eye as the tumult around the virus can affect results. For instance, we conduct a lot of research with young respondents, and we now know for sure that their parents are likely nearby when they are taking our surveys, and that can influence our findings for some subjects.

Particular care needs to be taken in ongoing tracking studies. It makes sense for many trackers to add questions in to see how the situation has affected the brand in question.

But, in the longer term there will be too much change in quantitative research methods that result directly from this situation. If anything, there will be a greater need to understand consumers.

Tough times for sure. It has been heartening to see how our industry has reacted. Research panel and technology providers have reached out to help keep projects afloat. We’ve had subcontractors tell us we can delay payments if we need to. Calls with clients have become more “human” as we hear their kids and pets in the background and see the stresses they are facing. Respondents have continued to fill out our surveys.

There is a lot of uncertainty right now. At its core, market research is a way to reduce uncertainty for decision makers by making the future more predictable, so we are needed now more than ever. Research will adapt as it always does, and I believe in the long-run it may become even more valued as a result of this crisis.


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